An Endorsement

February 18, 2008

With Super Tuesday in the rearview, and the likes of Romney, Giuliani and Edwards now out of the race, we've gained a little clarity into the probable candidates for the general election. However, it remains to be seen what impact all of this will have on the deal market. That’s not to imply, though, that the impact will be small.

Not even close. While few people probably thought about antitrust regulations or Sarbanes Oxley when they went to the polls, those are two major areas a new president might address. Moreover, as the economy appears ever likely to slip into recession, it will be on the next president to find a way out. That could mean tax breaks, public works projects or simply more fear-inducing rhetoric about the threats posed by Sovereign Wealth Funds. Whether indirectly or point blank, all of this does indeed impact the deal landscape

(Shameless plug: The March cover story of Mergers & Acquisitions Journal will help untangle exactly how.)

If our readers are looking for Merger Mogul to come out with an endorsement, I’d advise them not to hold their breath. I’m quite sure none of the remaining candidates will notice the absence, and it’s not as if the general electorate is tuned in to CFIUS reform and withholding judgment until the deal community, or Merger Mogul in particular, weighs in.

The truth is that it would be difficult to call one candidate good for M&A and the other bad. Clinton, for example, seems to have a protectionist bent, but she’d probably create other opportunities in areas such as healthcare. McCain, meanwhile, may not have a definitive answer for the growing deficit, but he’d probably be more likely to maintain the current president’s laid-back antitrust policy.

My only recommendation would be to stay abreast of the situation, because whoever wins, the deal market will surely be moved.

Meanwhile, I wanted to offer one more reminder about our own election of sorts, the M&A Mid Market Awards. We will be announcing the winners on April 10, at ACG InterGrowth, and publishing a rundown of the recipients in our May issue of Mergers & Acquisitions. If you have any last minute nominations, please don’t hesitate to email them to me at ken.macfadyen@sourcemedia.com, with the subject line "Nominations".

We’ve extended the deadline to March 3, 2008. For more information, please refer to Mergersunleashed.com, where you'll find an "M&A Mid Market Awards" link on the left-hand navigation bar or email any questions to me directly.